I wanted to share with you our most recent Investment Committee notes and thoughts, especially considering the levels of volatility over the last month. It’s not fun for anyone to have a negative/down year and lose money- even though it’s temporary and doesn’t matter much in light of our long term goals. After 20 years of doing this, I much prefer the 3 out of 4 years on average where the market is up, clients are making money, and worries are low. However, our clients who have entrusted us through market ups and downs have been rewarded and we will continue to do everything in our control to help you meet your financial needs and dreams. That being said, here are the things we are seeing, hearing, and doing on our clients’ behalf:
- As the mid-term elections near, volatility seems to be increasing which is normal
- Remember, if one party controls the Senate, House, and Presidency, this tends to lead to proactive fiscal policy (i.e. printing and spending trillions of dollars) and stimulus
- A balanced Congress over history is much better for the stock market- we believe the market is pricing in Republicans taking back the House and possibly the Senate
- This happened after Dems had total control for 2 years with Obama, and also to Republicans after Trump’s first 2 years in office
- We have made changes throughout this year to go slightly more defensive which have paid off for our clients by protecting (some) on the downside
- Noted changes made were the removal of Emerging Markets; addition of Alternatives and the reduction of traditional bonds as interest rates are rising fast; added energy beginning of the year, then trimmed the position some; heaving on value stocks over growth- all of these changes have helped!
- We are currently preparing another round of slight tweaks should the market break support levels on the downside that we are watching closely- again, we are NOT market timers, but we do have great research and resources at our fingertips to help make tweaks we feel benefit our clients
- These changes will involve adding managers that have a track record of protecting more on the downside but still get a substantial portion of the upside (some of which we already did earlier this year).
In summary, we aren’t making any changes right now, but simply reviewing our models and preparing for some quick adjustments should this market find a new Bear market low (hopefully not needed). We are here for you, so that you cannot worry about this stuff, enjoy spending your time with those you love doing the things you love. Remember, TIME is the real currency, not money. We will help manage your money so you can enjoy your time- let us help, we are passionate about this stuff!